April 2026: The First Full Month Reflecting the Impact of the Gulf Crisis
Global Volumes Remain Resilient Despite Disruption
Amid the disruption caused by the Gulf Crisis, which began at the end of February 2026, April represents the first full month of data reflecting the impact of the Strait of Hormuz closures. Despite these significant geopolitical challenges, global volumes remained remarkably resilient, reaching 16.2 million TEUs in April 2026.
This represents a 4% increase compared to April 2025, and a modest 1.6% uptick month on month from March 2026.
More importantly, year-to-date volumes remain strong, standing 5% above 2025 levels. This reinforces a long-standing maxim of global trade: cargo behaves much like water, finding alternative routes when traditional pathways become restricted.
A Hike in The Global Price Index
The Global Price Index rose sharply to 89 points in April 2026, an increase of more than 12% compared with March, when the index stood at 79 points. It is within pricing data that the true impact of the Gulf Crisis becomes most apparent.
The last time the Global Price Index experienced a month-on-month increase of this magnitude was in June 2024, during the height of the Red Sea diversions, when vessel rerouting effectively removed capacity from the market. This latest surge highlights the significant pressure the Strait of Hormuz closures are placing on global freight rates.
Global Imports: ISCME Experiences Decline
Looking at regional imports on a year-on-year basis, it is unsurprising that the Indian Sub-Continent & Middle East was the only region to record a decline compared with April 2025, falling 19%. This reduction was driven by a pullback in cargo from all exporting regions, except for South & Central America.
Year-to-date figures tell a similar story. All regions recorded import growth except North America and the Indian Sub-Continent & Middle East, which declined by 2% and 4% respectively.
For North America, the decline was primarily driven by reduced cargo volumes originating from Europe, the Indian Sub-Continent & Middle East, and South & Central America. For Indian Sub-Continent & Middle East, the largest reductions came from cargo originating in Europe and the region’s own intra-regional trade. Given the timing and scale of these declines, it is reasonable to conclude that they are directly linked to the ongoing geopolitical tensions in the Middle East.
Global Exports: A Similar Story
Exports present a familiar picture to the import market. Comparing April 2026 with April 2025, the Indian Sub-Continent & Middle East and North America were the only regions to record declines, down 15% and 3% respectively.
On a year-to-date basis, European exports remain down 2%, although this is an improvement from the 3% decline recorded in March. In fact, despite remaining below 2025 levels, European exports have shown gradual improvement throughout the opening months of 2026. The primary driver behind Europe’s weaker export performance remains the substantial reduction in cargo moving into the Indian Sub-Continent & Middle East, which comes at no surprise.
The Indian Sub-Continent & Middle East again is down 7% year to date for exports. The largest reductions are seen, once again, in exports to Europe and within the region’s own intra-trade market, both of which have declined by more than 100,000 TEUs compared with the same period last year.
Starting Q2 2026
As we move into the second quarter of 2026, it is clear that the Gulf Crisis is having an immediate and significant impact on freight pricing, yet global volumes continue to demonstrate remarkable resilience. While volumes have softened slightly in affected regions, overall trade remains robust.
This is particularly evident in Sub-Saharan Africa, which continues to emerge as one of the strongest performing regions globally. Year-to-date, exports are up 10% and imports are up 15%, highlighting how alternative trade routes and emerging markets are increasingly supporting global growth.
History has shown that trade doesn’t stop altogether during periods of geopolitical disruption. Instead, cargo is redirected, often creating new opportunities for previously smaller markets. These emerging trade lanes are now becoming an increasingly important contributor to the strong volume performance seen across the industry.
However, with freight rates rising at a pace not seen since the height of previous global disruptions, the key question remains: at what point, if any, will higher transport costs begin to exert meaningful pressure on global volumes?
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