Q1 2025 Review: A Strong Start Despite Global Challenges
Q1 Performance Helped By March Record Volumes:
As we reflect on the first quarter (Q1) of 2025, March has proven to be an outstanding month for global container volumes. March 2025 recorded the second-highest volume ever seen in the CTS database, standing at 16.194 million TEUs. This figure closely follows the reinstated record set in December 2024, which reached 16.199 million TEUs. These impressive figures highlight the strength of the market in recent months, with both record-breaking months occurring within the past four months, despite the ongoing challenges in an ever-changing market.
However, while volumes have remained robust, the global price index has continued its slow decline since the beginning of 2025, falling by 15% year-to-date (YTD). The index now stands at its lowest level since June 2023, when it stood at 79 points.
Steady Regional Import Performance:
When examining import performance across regions for Q1 2025, all regions experienced either stabilisation or growth, with the exception of Australasia and Oceania, which saw a YTD decline of -3% compared to 2024. This pullback appears to be a result of decreased exports from North America to this region.
The best-performing import region for Q1 2025, compared to Q1 2024, was Sub-Saharan Africa, which saw an 8% increase. This growth has been supported by strong volumes, particularly from North America. Interestingly, imports into the Far East remained flat, with no year-on-year (YoY) growth. However, with over 16 million TEUs lifted in Q1 2025 and 2024, this plateau is unsurprising.
Mixed Regional Export Figures:
On the export side, Q1 2025 has shown mixed results. Despite a strong performance in imports, Sub-Saharan Africa experienced a -5% decrease in exports YoY, the second-largest drop of any region. This reduction equates to approximately -46,000 TEUs for the quarter. It appears to be driven by decreased exports to the Far East, Indian Sub-Continent & Middle East, and Australasia & Oceania.
On a more positive note, South & Central America has seen a remarkable 20% YoY increase in imports from Sub-Saharan Africa exports. As expected, exports from North America to other regions have decreased, with a 6% drop in Q1 2025 compared to the same period in 2024. The largest reduction from this region was seen in Far East exports, with a decrease of over 170,000 TEUs in Q1 2025 compared to Q1 2024.
Far East exports, however, have shown the strongest growth in Q1 2025, rising by 7% YTD compared to 2024 and by nearly 16% YTD compared to 2023. As political and economic developments continue to shape this trade, it will be interesting to monitor how these factors influence the strength of Far East exports as we move into Q2 2025.
No ‘New Normal’ On The Horizon:
In summary, Q1 2025 has been a robust quarter for the container shipping industry, with volumes up by 4.2% compared to the same period in 2024. Despite external factors such as the impact of Chinese New Year, the reorganisation of shipping alliances, and the shorter month of February, volumes have performed strongly.
However, the ongoing softening of the global price index suggests that we may not see another month as strong as March for some time. As we enter the second quarter of 2025, it is clear that the container shipping industry continues to face uncertainty, and there is no sign yet of a ‘new normal’ emerging.
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