April 2025: Volume Shift as Economic Uncertainty Takes Hold
As we enter the second quarter of 2025, it’s clear that economic uncertainties and changes are starting to influence global volumes. April 2025 saw a 4.5% decrease in global volumes compared to March 2025. New routes are becoming more prominent, while some major trade lanes have slowed. Additionally, the revised March 2025 volumes now hold the record for the highest global liftings ever recorded in the CTS database, standing at 16.3 million TEUs. Whether this surge is due to shippers stockpiling in anticipation of economic changes or not, it highlights a strong start to 2025.
Imports: Regional Performance in April 2025
When examining imports for April 2025, most regions saw a decline compared to March, with the exceptions of South & Central America and Sub-Saharan Africa, which saw small increases of 2.9% and 2% respectively. While these upticks may seem modest, they demonstrate resilience amidst the broader downturn. North America experienced the largest import decline, dropping 11.5%, with 10% of this decrease attributed to a pullback in Far East exports. Far East imports also saw a significant 5.1% drop, driven primarily by reduced exports to North America. The Transpacific trade remains a key area to watch as the year progresses.
Exports: Mixed Regional Results
Exports showed a similar trend, with most regions experiencing month-on-month (MoM) declines. The largest drops were seen in the Indian Sub-Continent & Middle East and Europe, which fell by 11.2% and 8%, MoM respectively. Despite these declines, all export regions showed year-on-year (YoY) growth. South & Central America, in particular, saw a 10% increase compared to April 2024, driven by a rise in cargo shipments to Sub-Saharan Africa and North America.
Global Price Index and Market Outlook
The global price index continued to soften in April 2025, decreasing by 2 points to stand at 78. This marks the lowest level since June 2023, continuing a downward trend that started in December 2024. The most significant change in the price index between March and April 2025 occurred in the Far East to Indian Sub-Continent & Middle East trade lane, which saw a 9-point increase.
Rounding Up April 2025
While the month-on-month figures for April 2025 may appear somewhat subdued following the record-breaking March 2025, it’s important to remember that March was an exceptional month, and even a strong performance can seem less robust when compared to such a peak and compared to a month with an extra day. Volumes year-to-date (YTD) are still strong, up 5.8% compared to 2024, potentially providing a positive outlook for the rest of the year. As we move further into 2025, it will be crucial to monitor smaller trade lanes that could become the missing piece in global trade patterns as the market adjusts to new dynamics.
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